Buy, Hold, Sell — Round 1
Welcome to the first of my weekly articles on the players I think you should be buying, holding and selling as we approach the next round of AFL matches .
It was a mixed bag of results for many coaches on the weekend, and nearly all of us would have been done over by either the suspension of Patrick Dangerfield or the knee injury sustained by Matt Rowell. Lots of coaches had both, creating a double headache.
So with that in mind, let’s take a look at some buy, hold and sell options for this week.
Buy
Tom Mitchell
Mitchell was everywhere against the Bombers on Saturday night, particularly in the third term when the Hawks roared back into the contest. I was concerned about his shoulder on the back of that operation post-season last year, but it didn’t look like it affected him at all as he laid 5 tackles for the night, which is a great sign. If you’re looking to replace Dangerfield with another gun midfielder, Titch is at the top of my list and I’m bringing him in this week.
A Matt Rowell Replacement
With Matt Rowell likely to miss most of the season, we need to think about replacement options in a similar price range. There’s a couple that really stood out over the course of the weekend, and for mine are Andrew Brayshaw, Sam Walsh and Tim Taranto.
I wrote about Brayshaw in my team reveal last week and was bullish about his prospects for this year. His TOG was 79% against Melbourne, suggesting to me the Fremantle coaching staff are starting to take the handbrake off him which limited his scoring at times in 2020. If he stays in that 75–85% TOG range, I think he’ll be scoring at least 90–100 points a week, if not more.
Walsh was super impressive against the Tigers and it looks like he’ll be playing more of a role as an inside midfielder this year. Looked super clean in traffic and his disposal and decision making has come on very nicely since last year, as evidenced by his 87% efficiency from 31 disposals in what was a pretty hot game of footy. I don’t envisage Zac Williams and Jack Martin’s return this week affecting him too much.
Taranto was a bit of a slow starter against the Saints as he mixed midfield minutes with time in the forward half for GWS, but what I saw of his performance was good. His ceiling might be a little more limited than Brayshaw and Walsh with the glut of midfield talent the Giants seem to never run out of, but he’s a solid option which can also net you some cash as part of a trade for Rowell.
Jack Ziebell
Played a very SuperCoach-friendly role against Port Adelaide on Sunday and given North got blown away in patches in that game I think he’ll see plenty of the footy this year. He’s not playing as a true lockdown defender, more of a distributor across half back. I wouldn’t be expecting a ton from him every week, but the early signs are good.
Rookie corrections
There’s absolutely no shame in doing some corrective rookie trades at the start of a season to make sure you can maximise your cash generation from Round 3 onwards. If you missed any of these guys, you need to get them in this week or next.
Matt Flynn
Where have the Giants been hiding this guy?! Dominated against the Saints both in the ruck contest and found plenty of the ball around the ground too. A must-have at R3 if you started a different rookie ruckman. Hunter ran out of gas in the final term, leaving the ruck duties to Shaun McKernan and Lloyd Meek couldn’t get into the game against Max Gawn, leaving his position in jeopardy.
Errol Gulden
Boy this kid looks like he can play. Kicked 3 goals from 19 touches and 10 marks on Saturday night against the Lions and if you haven’t got him in your team, make room for him ASAP because his price is going to skyrocket.
James Rowe
A great bonus for all the coaches who started him at F5 or F6 last week as he kicked a couple of goals and applied heaps of pressure against the Cats. Looks like he’s now nailed his spot down in that Crows forward line for the long term.
James Jordon
I wouldn’t say he’s as essential as the other three players listed above, but with James Harmes set for a stint on the side-lines I think the Demons will continue to get senior game time into Jordon. He’ll likely hold his spot on merit anyway, after 15 disposals, 5 tackles and a goal on the weekend against Fremantle.
Hold
Brodie Grundy
Lots of coaches (including me) would have been disappointed with Grundy’s first-up effort against the Dogs. But he had a similar start in 2019, scoring 81 in Round 1 before scoring 10 tons in a row at an average of 134.5. Wait and see how he goes against Carlton this week before seriously considering the trade button.
Miles Bergman
He could well become a sell option by the weekend if he doesn’t get picked to play against Essendon, but I think injuries to Bonner and Jones will open the door for Bergman to hold his spot and have another crack for us as a FWD rookie. He found enough of the ball, just needs to tidy up his disposal efficiency to lift his scoring.
Nikolas Cox
Not an ideal start for the Essendon utility, who had just the nine disposals against the Hawks. His disposal efficiency was good, but he had four clangers including three free kicks against. Willing to give him one more week before looking at other options.
Sell
Matt Rowell
I really feel for this bloke, he just can’t get a run at it after such a promising start to his career last year. But it just goes to show that you need to mitigate the risks in your starting team where you can. A guy costing nearly $500K who has played 5 and a bit AFL games and had a serious injury last year was always going to be risky. For those who need to trade, you need to pick a player with minimal injury risk to make sure a one-trade correction doesn’t snowball more corrective trades. One of the options mentioned above could be a good starting point.
Patrick Dangerfield
There’s always one or two unforeseen incidents that jump out of the box each season and Dangerfield copping a three-game suspension for a nasty bump-gone-wrong with Adelaide’s Jake Kelly was the first of them. He needs to be traded this week, you can’t afford to have $600K+ sitting on the pine. Turn him into Dusty or Dunkley if you don’t have one of those two in your forward line, or a top line midfielder such as Mitchell via a DPP rookie swing.
James Harmes
One of the mid-pricers who was attracting some interest through the pre-season, but news came thorugh on Wednesday morning this week that the Demons midfielder has broken his wrist and undergone surgery. For those who started him, you’ll need to trade. Hayden Young from Fremantle was solid on the weekend and appears a good option if you’re looking to replace Harmes with another mid-price option, or go down to Highmore or Koschitzke if you don’t have them.
